In a few hours Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, a senior Iranian cleric and a former president of 8 years who backed the presidential campaign of opposition candidate MirHossein Mousavi, will finally make his first official debut since the election by leading the Friday prayers in Tehran. Every word that he says during this sermon will be carefully listened and analyzed for any political messages. This could be the most important moment in his political career. Indeed, from a strategic perspective, this presents an opportunity for “redemption” and creating a new and more likeable image. In fact, the same can be said about a lot of the leaders.

In any case, news websites and blogs are now filled with an anxious analysis of what Rafsanjani might say. Most seem to agree that it is Rafsanjani’s style to maneuver in between, to do back-door deals and try to please anyone. Indeed, it’s hard to imagine that he will come out criticizing the Supreme Leader and his followers, including Ahmadinejad. At least he won’t do it too harshly. His logic, which is purely based on keeping his own short and long-term position in power, will probably dictate him to find a compromise. But the only compromise I can think of is to say that he doesn’t recognize the official results and that it will be fought, one way or another, through legal channels.

But what’s important is not what Rafsanjani has to say but the presence of the supposedly-defeated candidate Mouasvi, the other presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi, the mild-mannered former president Mohammad Khatami, and the predicted thousands, if not millions, of their supporters who will try to gather and show their presence at the Friday prayers. Ahmadinejad will not be present himself – his bitter rivalry with Rafsanjani is by now well known – but hardliners have called for their supporters to line up at the prayers as well. This could be a dangerous scenario. There could be verbal clashes between the two camps that will eventually lead to blood. This could definitely happen if Rafsanjani has made no deals with the Supreme Leader and if the hardliners suspect him to stand tough against them. The logical move for the hardliners would then be to cancel the Friday prayers in Tehran (has that ever happened?) by sending a few hundred or thousand thugs to stir up the emotion of the supporters of Mousavi in the hope up creating a massive brawl. It would make well for propaganda as well, with the hardliner thugs being shown as members of the opposition reformist camp instead on the state-run television and blamed for trying to cancel the good prayers of the pious attendees.

Let’s just hope that irrespective of whatever Rafsanjani says or doesn’t say, there’s no violence and that the Green Movement shows up in the hundreds of thousands and sends their message across peacefully and with the dignity that they’ve had for the past month.

Good luck.